By Paul Tyrrell, Financial Times
Published: November 29 2010 22:19 | Last updated: November 29 2010 22:19
Scenarios are not forecasts, says Jeremy Bentham, Shell’s vice-president for the Global Business Environment . “Forecasts can have value in the short term but they’re at their most unhelpful precisely when you need them most – when discontinuities are occurring.” Scenario-building, by contrast, aims to develop situational awareness and identify future “critical uncertainties”.
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