I have received approval from my study leader for my research subject. The research project will be 80 pages.
The main objective of this research project is to create and consider probable, preferable and possible futures for BHP.
The research project will take cognisance of the interrelated trends and possible discontinuities that could impact on its future.
RESEARCH DESIGN & METHODOLOGY
A framework proposed by Sohail Inayatullah will be used to formulate the probable, preferable and possible futures (Inayatullah, 2008).
· Mapping the past, present & future
The history of BHP will be considered by documenting the main historical events and trends that have led to its present position. Particular attention will be paid to determine whether historical trends suggest any discontinuities in key trends. (Singer & Piluso, 2010) The history of BHP will be placed in a broader pattern of history (Kurian & Molitor, 1996)
The present will be mapped by identifying current quantitative drivers and trends that are impacting the future of BHP and its industry. A system based approach will be used to identify such drivers and trends (Kunc, 2008). An environmental scan will be performed to identify any new emerging issues impacting on the natural resources industry and BHP specifically.
An assessment of the strategic positioning of BHP will be performed. Porters’ competitive forces model will be used. The forces to be assessed are potential new entrants into the market, current competition, suppliers, buyers and substitute products and services (Porter, 2010)
· Deepening the understanding of selected trends
Based on the futures studies work performed in the previous section significant trends will be identified. The understanding of these selected future trends will be deepened by making use of a structural mapping matrix. The matrix integrates a depth dimension with a breath dimension (Slaughter, 2002)
· Creating alternatives
A scenario based approach will be used to create alternatives futures for BHP(Schoemaker, 1995). Four scenario archetypes are to be used, being:
1) Continued growth that enhances current conditions.
2) Collapse, as continued growth fails.
3) Steady state.
4) Transformation as a result of dramatic change. (Dator, 1979)
· Transforming
A preferred scenario is selected by comparing the different scenarios with that of the stated aims of the company.
CHAPTER OUTLINE
The chapter outline is as follows:
- Chapter one will be an introduction.
· Chapter two will consider the history of BHP and the natural resources industry by documenting the main historical events and trends that have led to the present. The history of BHP will be placed in a broader pattern of history.
· Chapter three will identify quantitative drivers and trends that are impacting the future of BHP and its industry. A system based approach will be used to identify such drivers and trends. An environmental scan will be performed to identify any new emerging issues impacting on the natural resources industry and BHP specifically.
· Chapter four will include an assessment of the strategic positioning of BHP. Porters’ competitive forces model will be used to perform this assessment. The competitive forces to be assessed are potential new entrants into the market, current competition, suppliers, buyers and substitute products and services
· Chapter five will use a structural mapping matrix to deepen the understanding of selected significant trends.
· Chapter six will create four scenarios based on the work performed in the previous chapters.
· Chapter seven will select a preferred future based on the scenarios proposed and the stated aims of the organisation.
· Chapter eight gives a summary of the futures of BHP as well as the limitations of the process.
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