Showing posts with label Coefficient of Determination. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Coefficient of Determination. Show all posts

Sunday, 26 December 2010

Reading 11, Putting the puzzle of Reading 11 together


Level 2, Volume 1, Quantitative methods, Reading 11, Correlation & Regression
Most questions related to Reading 11 incorporate tables as indicated below.
I struggled initially to understand the relevance and links between the data. After I studied it in some detail I came to the conclusion that if you understand the table, you understand most of Reading 11.
These tables are a bit like a big puzzle, and once you start to piece it together Reading 11 falls into place. This is pretty cool.
Below I use the information from Reading 11, Table 12 and show all the links and relationships using underlying formulas.
Did I say it is pretty cool?

Information from Reading 11, Table 12
Regression Statistics
Multiple R
0.928
R-Squared
0.861
Observations
60
Standard error of estimate
0.0174

ANOVA
Degrees of Freedom
Sum of Squares
Mean Sum of
Squares
F
Regression
1
          0.1093
0.1093
359.64
Residual
58
0.0176
0.0003
Total
59
0.1269

Coefficients
Standard Error
t-Statistic
Alpha
0.0009
0.0023
0.4036
Beta
0.7902
0.0417
18.9655


  
1.Calculate Correlation Coefficient  (“CC”)using Coefficient of Determination (“CD”)
Remember R-Squared = Coefficient of Determination
1.1 Reference
Reading 11, 3.4

1.2.1 Formula: Method 1
CD = Square the CC between the dependent and independent variables.
Thus CC = √CD

1.3.1 Using information from the tables:
CC =  √0.861 = 0.928

We can therefore also conclude that Multiple R = Correlation Coefficient

1.2.2 Formula: Method 2
Sum of Squares are used to calculate variation. Residual variation is the same as unexplained variation.

= 1 - (Unexplained variation/Total Variation)

1.3.2 Using information from the tables:
= 1 – (0.0176/0.1269)
= 0.928


2.1 Reference
Reading 11, 3.3

2.2 Formula






2.3 Using information from the tables:
We know that Residual Sum of Squares is the same as Sum of Error Squares.
Therefore:
√(0.0176/(60-2))
= √0.0003
= 0.0174


3. Calculating Means (Residual)
(0.0176/(60-2))
=0.0003


4. Calculate ANOVA using the F test

4.1 Reference:
Reading 11, 3.6

4.2 The formula:


4.3 Using information from the tables:
(0.1093/1) / (0.0176/(60-2))
= 360.193
(Difference due to rounding. As indicated in text book)

5. Link between F test & t-statistic

5.1 Reference
Reading 11, 3.6

5.2 Formula
For one independent variable the F-statistic is the square of the t-statistic for the slope coefficient.

5.3 Using information from the tables:
t- statistic = √F statistic
                  = √359.64
                   = 18.9655

6. Calculating the t-statistic

6.1 Reference
Reading 11, 2.6

6.2 Formula

6.3 Using information from the tables:
0.928. √(60-2) / √(1-0.928²)
18.9655


7.1 Reference
Reading 11, 3.5

7.2 Formula





This formula equals 0

7.3 Using information from the tables:
0 = 0.7902 +/- (x)(0.0417)
+/- X = 18.94







Saturday, 11 December 2010

Reading 11, 3.4 Coefficient of Determination - Method 2

Level 2, Volume 1, Quantitative Methods, Reading 11, Correlation & Regression

The references refer to the CFA text book.
3.4 Coefficient of determination (“CD”)

Why CD?
The standard error of estimate (SEE) gives some indication of how certain one can be about a particular prediction of Y using the regression equation.
It does not tell us how well the independent variable explains variation in the dependent variable. The coefficient of determination does this, measuring the fraction of the total variation in the dependent variable that is explained by the independent variable.

There are 2 methods to calculate CD. Method 1 was discussed in the previous post


Method 2:  For use in a linear regression with more than ONE independent variable

Total variation = Unexplained variation Plus Explained variation
Therefore
Explained variation = Total variation Minus Unexplained variation


Reading 11, 3.4 Coefficient of Determination - Method 1

Level 2, Volume 1, Quantitative Methods, Reading 11, Correlation & Regression

The references refer to the CFA text book.

3.4 Coefficient of determination (“CD”)

Why CD?
The standard error of estimate (SEE) gives some indication of how certain one can be about a particular prediction of Y using the regression equation.
It does not tell us how well the independent variable explains variation in the dependent variable. The coefficient of determination does this, measuring the fraction of the total variation in the dependent variable that is explained by the independent variable.

There are 2 methods to calculate CD, method 1 is shown below, with Method 2 in the next post

Method 1:  For use in a linear regression with ONE independent variable
CD = Square the correlation coefficient between the dependent and independent variables.

(Link to Excel file on box.net)

Example